Georgia Tech Defies Typical Turnover Trends-So Far....

Georgia Tech is 4-0 , and the Yellow Jackets are favored to hike that record to 5-0 when they take on Wake Forest in Winston- Salem on Saturday.

4-0 is an uncommon start for the Yellow Jackets . The most recent year they enjoyed a similar jump out of the gate was back in 2014 under Paul Johnson.

And this 4-0 slate is even more unusual when turnovers are taken into account. In three of their four wins this year, Tech has lost the turnover battle. Against Colorado (minus three) and against Gardner Webb and Temple ( minus one each).

The only game in which Tech won the turnover margin was against Clemson, by a plus- two count.

Tech head coach Brent Key had a succinct answer when asked about his team's turnover count this season.

" Unacceptable ", said Key.

He had been asked about possible ways his defense could produce more turnovers, but Key reframed the question, asking instead how his offense could produce fewer. And that's where the " unacceptable " modifier comes into his thinking. Because Key sees these events as a shortcoming in the proper practice of the game.

Said Tech's head man on the origin of turnovers, "It is technique. It is doing things the right way all the time, right?" .

Fumbles and to a lesser extent interceptions conjure up images of a vicious hit by the defense, and sometimes that is the case. But Key points out that most turnovers are the result of inexact execution– a bad snap, an awkward handoff, even poor footwork on a throw– and as such, turnovers should largely be preventable.

Key is certainly not alone in his disdain for turnovers and those who commit them. John Heisman, coach at Tech from 1904- 1919 , famously said " Better to have died as a small boy than to fumble the football". (One can imagine that he wasn't smiling when he said it).

And Bear Bryant (or was it Woody Hayes?) said that "..when you throw the football, three things can happen, and two of them are bad​". Such visceral reactions to fumbles and interceptions makes sense. And to be thorough, we must also acknowledge that coaches can sometimes play an indirect role in turning the ball over. The Georgia Tech - Miami game from 2023 serves as an example. At the tag end of the game, Miami had the ball and was sitting on a three point lead, needing to simply runout the clock. Rather than have his QB simply kneel down with the ball , Hurricanes ' coach Mario Cristobal called for a handoff. On the second of these Tech coaxed a fumble from Miami , recovered by the Jackets' Kyle Kennard and Tech proceeded to score a last- second winning touchdown using a possession that was provided to them unnecessarily by Miami's strange call. That fumble was on the coach.- and by the way , it was tbe fifth turnover of the game for the Hurricanes to Tech's two.

Numerous attempts have been made to quantify the extra risk that turnovers impart.

A 2013 study in SB Nation Football Study Hall, author okc__dave attempted to correlate turnover margin with probability of winning. He then created a chart that listed actual number of predicted wins based on season- long turnover margin average. ( see below).

To no one's surprise, the more positive your turnover margin, the more wins you will have...generally speaking.

And it is general because there are plenty of exceptions (also not surprising). Georgia Tech has been one such an exception so far in 2025. That type of football (winning, while being " sloppy with the ball ") makes coaches nervous.

Or in Key's case, annoyed. He asked rhetorically whether there had ever been a team that completed a full season while committing no turnovers.

The answer is no, thought Alabama in 2007 did have a 30 quarter stretch ( seven- plus games) without losing the ball by turnover. So far this year, Tech has given up five turnovers. Traditional turnovers , that is– fumbles lost and interceptions thrown.

Which brings us to another concept that rankles coaches and fans, but gets much less notice. Namely, penalties that act as de facto turnovers . Common examples include 3rd down pass interference, roughing the kicker, and false starts/ encroachment on "3rd and short" plays.

Such plays aren't separately categorized in football box scores, but they should be. A separate box score column labeled P/TO, or "penalty- turnover" would give appropriate significance to these moments that do not show up as a fumble or an interception, but can carry just as much weight.

Of note as we consider Georgia Tech's upcoming game is the outcome the last time these two teams met. That was two years ago, also at Wake Forest, where Georgia Tech prevailed 30-16. In that game, Wake outgained Tech in total yardage, gained far more first downs ( 29-13), had better 3rd down efficiency, better fourth down efficiency, more time of possession and far fewer penalties ( two for Wake vs. 14 for Georgia Tech).

But Georgia Tech won by two touchdowns. Because Tech won the turnover match with only one, compared to five for Wake.

There's a lesson in there somewhere for the Yellow Jackets. Ball security is of prime importance, in the next game, and in every game.

Patrick Conarro

RamblinSports